The time has come. The streets are abuzz, electoral winds are shifting, and the polls are forecasting the next representative for the Delhi Legislative Assembly. The fierce contest between the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the Indian National Congress (INC) for dominance over the nation’s capital is more important than ever.
Delhi, a city grappling with both regional and global challenges, demands astute and forward-thinking governance. No longer is it a time of “the world sleeps, and India awakens.” Instead, it is the time when “the world watches how India behaves.” Addressing issues such as international conflicts, economic uncertainties, food security, GDP fluctuations, and the global climate crisis requires strong, visionary leadership. In this environment, Delhi’s next government will play a pivotal role in shaping India’s future.
As each party rolls out their manifesto, all eyes are on the promises they are making for the future. Let’s take a closer look at the key proposals(data may vary):
Women Empowerment
- AAP: The “Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana” promises ₹2,100 monthly to women with an income of up to ₹3 lakh per annum.
- BJP: Introduces the “Mahila Samridhi Yojana,” offering ₹2,500 monthly to poor women, along with the “Matru Suraksha Vandana Scheme,” providing ₹21,000 and six nutritional kits for pregnant women.
- Congress: The “Pyari Didi Yojana” promises ₹2,500 monthly for women, following the model of Karnataka’s Gruha Jyoti scheme.
Education and Public Transport
- AAP: Proposes subsidies and scholarships for higher education, along with a request for a central government increase in the education budget from 2% to 10%.
- BJP: Continues the free bus ride scheme for women and students.
- Congress: Focuses on improving educational programs that aim to reduce unemployment through skill training.
Health
- AAP: Commits to raising health spending to 10% and offers tax exemptions for health insurance schemes.
- BJP: Promises the continuation of Ayushman Bharat and free health check-ups under a centralized system.
- Congress: Proposes universal health insurance covering all Delhi residents up to ₹25 lakh, inspired by Rajasthan’s Right to Health Act.
Senior Citizens and Pensions
- AAP: Pledges robust pension plans, nationwide free medical treatment, and the reinstatement of railway concessions for senior citizens.
- BJP: Promises increased pensions for senior citizens, widows, and destitute women.
- Congress: Commits to enhancing pension schemes to keep pace with inflation and improve welfare benefits.
Subsidies and Freebies
- AAP: Proposes waiving GST on essential commodities and increasing the income tax exemption limit to ₹10 lakh.
- BJP: Promises subsidized LPG cooking gas and free cylinders during Holi and Diwali, alongside Atal Canteens offering ₹5 meals in slum areas.
- Congress: Aims to combat inflation with targeted subsidies on food and other necessities.
Anti-Corruption and Governance
- AAP: Plans to simplify tax reforms to eliminate corruption within the system.
- BJP: Emphasizes robust anti-corruption measures, alongside the continuation of central government programs like Ayushman Bharat.
- Congress: Launches the “Dilli Nyay Yatra,” focusing on pollution control, unemployment, garbage disposal, and broader governance challenges.
A Closer Look at the Vote Share Dynamics in Recent Delhi Elections
While the promises made by each party are indeed eye-catching and tailored to win the support of Delhi’s voters, it is important to critically assess how those promises align with the shifting trends in electoral politics. Let’s analyze the vote share dynamics in Delhi over the past few elections to gain deeper insights into the state of competition.
2015 Election Vote Share:
- AAP: 54.3%
- BJP: 32.2%
- INC: 9.7%
- Others: 3.8%
2020 Election Vote Share:
- AAP: 53.57% (a slight dip)
- BJP: 38.51% (a noticeable surge)
- INC: 4.26% (decline by ~5.44%)
- Others: 3.66%
Key Observations and Trends
- AAP’s Slight Decline:
AAP’s vote share saw a minor dip from 54.3% in 2015 to 53.57% in 2020, reflecting a marginal loss in dominance. Although still dominant, the slight decrease indicates possible discontent or wavering support among certain sections of the electorate. - BJP’s Significant Rise:
In contrast, BJP witnessed a noticeable surge, rising from 32.2% in 2015 to 38.51% in 2020, indicating growing support. This rise positions BJP as a strong contender, closing the gap with AAP and making the 2025 elections all the more competitive. - INC’s Sharp Decline:
Congress‘s support took a sharp plunge, dropping from 9.7% in 2015 to just 4.26% in 2020, a decrease of approximately 5.44%. This decline marks an alarming loss of relevance, signaling a disconnect between the party and Delhi’s voters. - The Other Parties:
Support for the Others category remained relatively consistent, standing at 3.8% in 2015 and 3.66% in 2020. This stability suggests that while smaller players exist, they haven’t significantly altered the political landscape in Delhi.
The Road Ahead: A Nail-Biting Contest in 2025
As Delhi prepares for the 2025 Legislative Assembly Elections, it is clear that BJP’s momentum is picking up, while AAP’s dominance is starting to soften. This creates a dynamic contest where a resurgence of BJP or even smaller upsets could dramatically change the power equations.
For Congress, the challenge is monumental—rebuilding relevance and trust after such a significant decline in vote share will require more than just promises but a comprehensive strategy to re-establish its footing among Delhi’s electorate.
Meanwhile, as political parties take center stage, the manifestos with their enticing promises will be placed under intense scrutiny by voters. Each party must not only deliver what it has promised but must also offer genuine solutions to the capital’s most pressing challenges. This raises the stakes higher than ever, as voters seek more than political rhetoric but real answers that will shape Delhi’s future.
Slum Rehabilitation and Urban Challenges
Delhi’s slums and JJ clusters(around 675 slums and approximately 1,700 JJ clusters), home to approximately 15 lakh voters which makes up 10% of total electorate, have historically supported AAP. As the city’s population continues to grow, key challenges like poor drainage, inadequate healthcare, sanitation, and housing persist. Tackling these issues is critical for any party to maintain the trust of the voters from these communities.
The Freebie Debate
The Delhi government’s reliance on freebies for voter support has become a major point of contention. While such programs aim to alleviate immediate hardships, over-reliance on them is financially unsustainable. In the 2023-24 fiscal year, Delhi’s estimated revenue receipts were ₹69,000 crore, while the total budget exceeded ₹78,800 crore, resulting in a ₹9,800 crore deficit. Funding freebies without addressing foundational issues places a heavy strain on the economy, diverting resources from long-term infrastructure improvements.
Instead of simply distributing money, it would be more effective to empower individuals through skill development, entrepreneurship training, and small-scale business support. This would provide sustainable income and elevate communities in the long run, rather than relying on short-term palliatives. The Roman poet Juvenal famously said, “Give them bread and circuses, and they will never revolt.” This concept mirrors the political strategy of offering freebies—designed to keep populations passive while overlooking the need for real empowerment and social transformation.
A Call to Action for Voters
As Delhi heads into another critical election, voters must prioritize questions of governance, infrastructure, and sustainability. This is the moment to demand more than empty promises. The following questions should be at the forefront of citizens’ minds when evaluating the next government:
- Slum Rehabilitation: How will the next government address basic living conditions in slums, particularly concerning hygiene, healthcare, and housing?
- Water and Air Quality: What urgent steps will be taken to reduce water and air pollution in the city?
- Traffic and Urban Planning: How will traffic congestion and overcrowding be handled through better urban policies?
- Security and Regulatory Oversight: How will Delhi strengthen its security apparatus and ensure effective regulation amidst public protests and urban challenges?
- Infrastructure Development: What is the timeline for building new schools, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure equipped with modern technology?
- Revenue Generation: How will the state increase revenue sources to fund essential projects and services?
- Freebies and Welfare Programs: When will the government introduce a more responsible and sustainable approach to welfare programs, focusing on empowerment rather than dependency?
Conclusion
Before casting their vote, Delhi’s citizens must ask themselves—what kind of future do we want for the capital? Freebies might provide temporary relief, but true progress lies in empowering people, addressing urban challenges head-on, and investing in sustainable long-term solutions. Only a government that is dedicated to the welfare of all its citizens can help the city evolve into the world-class capital it aspires to be.